Türkiye Ekonomisi ve Tasarruf

Türkiye ekonomisinin en ciddi yapısal sorunun tasarruf açığı olduğunu savunan biri olarak bu konu her gündeme geldiğinde ne kadar mutlu olduğu size kelimelerle ifade etmem mümkün değil. Daha önce Ali Babacan yükselen cari açık ile ilgili konuşurken bu soruna dikkat çekmişti, o zaman da sevinmiştim, aynı zamanda reel faizlerin bir türlü öngörülemeyen enflasyondaki zıplama yüzünden negatife dönmesiyle tasarrufların nasıl artacağı sorusunu zihnimde filizlendirmişti, pek çok mantıklı yorumcu da bu durumu sorgulamıştı. Ben bu şahıslar hakkında “mantıklı yorumcu” ifadesini kullanıyorum ama “faiz lobisi” diyen de var.

Konuyla ilgili bir'haber bugün Bloomberg’te yayınlandı. Çin’den sonra dünyanın en hızlı büyüyen ülkesi olan ve 2002 yılından beri %5,9'luk bir ortalama büyüme gerçekleştiren Türkiye ekonomisi bu verilerle şu anda sahip olduğu kredi notundan daha fazlasını hakettiği bir gerçek ancak şu an sahip olduğu tasarruf oranıyla da notun yükselmesi de zor. Bu yüzden Türkiye kendi ekonomisinin 12de 1'i büyüklükte olan Guetamala, Sırbistan gibi ülkelerle aynı kredi notuna sahipken yurtdışında yaptığı borçlanmalarda her 1 milyar dolarlık borçlanma için Rusya’nın ödediğinin 8 milyon dolar fazlasını ödüyor.

Bugün Goldman Sachs’ın Türk bankaları ile ilgili raporunda da bu konuya değiniliyor. Raporda yine Rusya ile yapılan bir kıyaslama var ve verilere göre son 10 yılda tasarruflar Rusya’da 12 kat artarken Türkiye’de sadece 4 kat artmış. Tabi demografik açıdan Türkiye’nin nüfusunun daha genç olması (dolayısıyla tüketime daha meyilli, tasarruf-tüketim kararında ağırlığın tüketimde olması) ve Rusya’nın hammadde ihraç eden bir ülke olarak cari fazla vermesi ve tasarruf edebilecek rezervlere sahip olmasının etkisi büyük. Goldman Sachs da zaten iki ülkenin bankalarının borsalarda fiyatlanmasında bu değişikliklere dikkat çekiyor. İki ülkenin kredi büyüme oranlarında da Türkiye ufak farkla önde, %37'ye %33. Temmuz 2012'de uygulamaya geçecek Basel II uygulaması ile de kredi büyümesinin daralacağını öngörmek için çok zeki olmaya gerek yok. Burada bir parantez açıp bunun en çok gayrımenkul sektörünü etkileyeceğini sözlerime ekleyeyim. Bir parantez de raporda Halkbank için “al” yorumu yapıldığı için açalım ki yabancı raporları takip eden herkes tahmin edebileceği bir şey bu.

Ülkenin tasarruf açığının ise cari açık ve tüketime dayalı büyümeyi nasıl beslediğini anlatmama gerek yok sanırım. İnsanlar belirli bir gelir elde ettiklerinde vermeleri gereken bir karar vardır, o da tüketim yaparak gereksinimlerini karşılamak ya da gereksinimlerini karşılamayı erteleyerek gelirleriyle tasarruf ya da yatırım yapmak. Ülkemizde insanların kararlarında tüketim daha büyük bir ağırlığa sahip olduğundan ve başta enerji olmak üzere üretim sistemi de pek çok girdisini dışarıdan karşıladığından yüksek cari açıklarla karşılaşıyoruz. Düşük faiz oranları insanları tasarruf yapmaktan alıkoyarken tüketimi de daha cazip hale getiriyor. Bütün bunlar olurken de mevduat vade ortalamasının bir ay, kredi vade ortalamasının bir yıla yakın olduğu bankacılık sisteminde, bankalar nakit akımlarında vadesel eşgüdümü sağlamak için bin dereden su getiriyor. Sonuçta hem reel kesim, hem de finansal kesim ciddi bir kırılganlığa sahip oluyor.

Goldman Sachs analistlerinin hazırladığı yukarıdaki grafikte de yine Türkiye ve Rusya’nın büyüme kompozisyonları kıyaslanıyor ve dış ticaret 14 baz puanlık ve tüketimde 20 baz puanlık Rusya lehine olan farka dikkat çekiliyor.

Bloomberg haberinde bir de BDDK raporuna dikkat çekiliyor. BDDK raporuna göre toplam kredilerin %85′i aylık geliri 1.200$ altında olan kesim tarafından kullanılıyor, mevduatın 47′si ise toplam nufüsa oranı %0,1 olan bir kesim tarafından tutuluyor. Demem o ki Türkiye halkı borçlu, üstelik bu borcu kapayacak ne geliri, ne de tasarrufu var.

Kapkara bir tablo çizmek istemiyorum ama finansal sistemin barındırdığı ve eğer giderilmezse ekonominin tamamını ciddi şekilde etkileyecek sorunları barındırdığı bir gerçek. Read More!

Hedge Funds' Favorite Stocks

Hedge fonlarin satin aldiklari hisselere baktigimiz zaman hangi sektorlerin ucuz oldugunu hemen bulabiliyoruz. Insider Monkey son ceyrekte 375 than hedge fonun yaptigi islemleri analiz edip bir yazi yayinladi. 10 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds basligini tasiyan bu yaziya gore teknoloji ve finansal sirketler su an en ucuz sektorler. Analizin devamini ve yeni analizleri Insider Monkey sitesinden takip edebilirsiniz. Read More!

Warren Buffett'in Yatirimcilara Son Mektubu

Warren Buffett bugun yatirimcilara hitaben yazdigi mektubunu yayinladi. Borsada yatirim yapan bir cok yatirimci Warren Buffett'in senede bir defa yayinladigi bu mektuplari kacirmadan okur. Siz de bu mektubun tamamini okumak istiyorsaniz Warren Buffett 2011 Shareholder Letter linkini ziyaret ediniz. Read More!

Zacks Insider Trading

Insider trading konusunda calistigimi daha once anlatmistim. Piyasalarda gorulen anomalilerle ilgili bir kitapta insider trading bolumunu de gecen sene yazdigimi belki soyledim, belki de soylemedim. Neyse, bu kitap gectigimiz aylarda yayinlandi, bir de websitesi yaptilar. Websitesini pek kimsenin ziyaret ettigini zannetmiyorum ama. Yine de ilgilenenler Zacks insider trading sitesini ziyaret edebilirler. Read More!

PatronTurk: Is Dunyasindan ve Zenginlerden Haberler

PatronTurk sitesi ile yeni bir link degisimi gerceklestirdim. Amacim ekonomi ve finansla ilgili konularda yazilar yayinlayan sitelerden benim su an uzerinde calistigim sitelere link almak. PatronTurk sitesi is dunyasi ile ilgili haberleri derleyerek yayinliyor ve daha once de Warren Buffett hakkinda yazilmis bir kac tane yazisi var: Warren Buffett fiyati dusen hisseleri havada kapti, Warren Buffett Insider Trading ve Dunyanin En Zenginleri Listesindeki Turkler.
PatronTurk sitesinin yaptigi gibi bizimle link degisimi yapmak isteyenler bize email ile ulasabilirler. PatronTurk sitesinin pagerank'i 3 ama buna ragmen ben pagerank'i 5 olan Ekonomi Turk'ten link veriyorum. Bunun bana faydasi ise PatronTurk sitesinin pagerank'ini yukselterek aldigim linklerin daha da degerli olmasini saglamasi. Read More!

Jim Cramer Stock Picks

One of the screens we use to pick stocks is Jim Cramer’s stock picks. Jim Cramer has a bad reputation because he makes thousands of recommendations on TV and investors tend to remember bad experiences, not the good ones. You wouldn’t believe this but there is an academic study that showed that Cramer’s stock picks actually beat the market by a significant margin. In this article we will take a closer look at five stocks that are in Cramer’s charitable trust’s portfolio and decide whether they are good investments for investors looking for large capital gains.

Apache Corp (APA): APA is the largest US energy stock in Cramer’s trust. As of February 15, 2012, the fund owns 1050 shares of APA, which worth about $113,000. APA is also quite popular among hedge funds. At the end of the third quarter, there were 30 hedge funds with APA positions.

Yazinin devamini Jim Cramer's Stock Picks sayfasindan okuyabilirsiniz. Read More!

Niye Link Istiyoruz?

Ekonomi Turk blogunu vakti zamaninda ayda 60-70 bin kisi ziyaret ediyordu. 2010'un ortalarina kadar cok saglam yazilar yayinladik ama Turkiye'de insanlar cok politik olduklarindan bize pek bir ilgi gosterilmedi acikcasi. Blogdan oyle fazla bir para da kazanamiyorduk. Neticede Ekonomi Turk blogunun arama motorlari nezdindeki kredibilitesinden yararlanarak Insider Monkey isimli bir site baslattik.

Boynuz kulagi gecermis derler. Insider Monkey'nin okuyucu sayisi Ekonomi Turk'u 1.5 senede ikiye katladi. Ustune ustluk Insider Monkey ingilizce bir blog oldugu icin reklamlardan kazandigimiz ucretler de Turkiye'deki reklamlarin 5-10 kati civarinda seyrediyor. Neticede Insider Monkey sitesinden kazandigimiz para dise dokunur miktarlara yukseldi. Sitede yazan 1-2 tanede part-time yazar ise aldik, Amerika'nin issizlik oranini dusurduk.

Durmak yok. Bundan sonra siteyi buyutmek daha kolay. Sitenin pagerank'i 6'a yukseldi. Amacimiz bunu daha da yukarilara yukseltmek. Gecen aylarda David Einhorn kelimesinde arama motorlarinda yukarilara cikmak icin calisiyorduk, simdi daha zor olan Warren Buffett kelimesinde ilk 10'a girmeye calisiyoruz. O yuzden de bize link verenlere biz de Ekonomi Turk veya diger sitelerimizden esdeger veya daha yuksek pagerank'e sahip link verecegiz. Link verebilecegimiz siteler arasinda sunlar var:
Turkish Economy
Finans Turk: pagerank 2
Turk Finans: pagerank yok
Turk Economy: pagerank 3
Turk Ekonomi: pagerank 2
Ekonomi Turk: pagerank 5
Sitenizin pageranki 3-4 arasinda ise Ekonomi Turk sitesinden link verecegiz, eger sitenizin pageranki daha dusuk ise diger 5 siteden bir tanesinden link verecegiz. Ilgilenenler mail atsinlar. Read More!

8 UBS Stock Picks for 2012

UBS Investment Research’s report, “US Morning Meeting Highlights”, from January 13^th discusses how stocks will be affected from the elections. The analysts are of the opinion that Obama’s victory would have a positive impact on “tech and industrial companies”, whereas the “healthcare, financial, energy and consumer” companies will be negatively influenced due to tougher regulations. A republican victory, on the other hand, could prove to be beneficial for “universal banks, managed care, coal, defense, and high-end consumer stocks”.

In this article, we will discuss the buy-rated stocks mentioned in UBS’s report (read the first part of this article).

Mattress Firm (MFRM) has been given a buy rating by UBS. Due to the economic downturn, the company has not been able to generate adequate sales to meet its previous records. However, it has set a target of around $1 million in sales per store for 2012. The idea of testing mall locations in Oklahoma is currently under consideration as it may help the company in expanding, given favorable results are derived from this activity. UBS does not expect the firm to experience a shift in the product mix to specialty products; thereby it is expected to give a stable outcome for the year 2012. Shares of the company were trading around $26 per share at the time of the publication of this report and are expected to go north of $30 by the end of 2012. Its earnings-per-share estimate has also been revised upward to $1.2 for 2013. UBS seems on target with its predictions as the stock increased to $31.04 on Friday.

CVS Caremark Corporation (CVS) is a pharmaceutical company based in the U.S. It has been given a buy rating by UBS, due to its expected ‘multi-source, generic launches’ in 2013. These launches are likely to have spillover effects which will prove to be beneficial for the Pharmaceutical sector. The expected merger between Express Scripts (ESRX) and MedcoHealth Solutions (MHS) is also expected to have a combined positive impact on the industry. Shares of CVS are currently trading around $42 per share and are expected to reach a price target of $48.

The company has a beta of 0.82 which shows that its shares are not volatile in nature. Also, its operating margin of 6% is greater than the industry average of 3.5%. CVS has a low price-to-equity ratio of 17x and a dividend yield of 1.5%. Billionaire John Paulson and Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway initiated brand new positions in CVS during the third quarter (see Warren Buffett’s portfolio).

CONSOL Energy (CNX) produces multi-fuel energy in the U.S. The company has been given a buy rating by UBS. With NatGas storage levels at a high and production that is exceeding expectations, UBS has lowered its NatGas forecast. CONSOL currently has low-cost operations in NatGas, making it susceptible to the increased supply. This will most likely affect CONSOL’s performance in the short-term. UBS analysts are of the opinion that CONSOL may now be considering share buybacks. Shares of the company are currently trading around $36 per share and are expected to go north of $73, indicating an upside potential of more than 100%.

CONSOL’s operating margin of 15.6% is significantly higher than the industry average of negative 0.2%. It also has a significantly lower price-to-sales ratio of 1.3x versus the industry average of 8.7x, indicating that it has the potential to turn things around in case of adverse conditions. Sonterra Capital initiated a brand new $154 million position in CNX during the third quarter. Steve Cohen’s SAC Capital boosted its stake in the company by 24% over the third quarter as well (see billionaire Steve Cohen’s top stock picks).

MVC Capital (MVC) engages in private equity investments. It has been given a buy rating by UBS. The company is currently investing its equity in three different companies and two other private equity funds. Around 30% of its portfolio is based in Europe, making it more volatile. Despite that, MVC Capital’s net asset value has increased with the appreciation of Security Holdings. Shares of the company are currently trading at $12.5 per share and are expected to reach a price target of $16. Earnings per share are expected to reach an estimate of $0.34, by the year 2013. Nelson Obus’ Wynnefield Capital had $16 million invested in MVC at the end of September.

AmerisourceBergen (ABC) is a pharmaceutical company that distributes drugs and provides healthcare services. It has been given a buy rating by UBS Investment Research. The likely merger between Express Scripts (ESRX) and MedcoHealth Solutions (MHS) will result in AmerisourceBergen losing the contract with Medco in 2013. This is why UBS is taking a conservative stance with regards to the company. It has also lowered AmerisourceBergen’s earnings per share and price target expectations. Shares of the company are currently trading at $39 per share and are expected to reach a price target of $44. Robert Emil Zoellner’s Alpine Associates is by far the most bullish hedge fund about ABC with a $261 million position at the end of September.

Cardinal Health (CAH) provides pharmaceutical services. It has been given a buy rating by UBS. The new CEO is confident that the company will retain its contract with Express Scripts. Also, UBS does not see any additional risks associated with the precarious relationship between the two companies. UBS has taken a conservative stance on the generics for drug distributors, which has resulted in a review of earnings per share for Cardinal Health. Shares of the company are currently trading at $42.34 per share and are expected to reach a price target of $51, based on a 14.5x price-to-equity ratio. Larry Robbins’ Glenview Capital and Joe Healey’s Healthcor Management are bullish about Cardinal Health.

Express Scripts (ESRX) engages in the provision of pharmacy benefit management services in North America. The potential merger with MedcoHealth Solutions (MHS) has had a positive impact on the company’s valuations. UBS has increased its earnings per share estimates above consensus expectations. Express Scripts has kept more than 95% of its prescription volume, going into 2012, giving UBS enough reason to have a $3.6 estimate for the company’s earnings per share. The company’s shares are currently trading around $51 per share and are expected to go north of $66, indicating a potential upside of 29%. Jim Simons’ Renaissance Technologies had $143 million in ESRX at the end of September (see billionaire Jim Simons’ portfolio).

McKesson Corporation (MCK) engages in the delivery of medicines and pharmaceutical supplies to the Healthcare industry. It has been given a buy rating by UBS Investment Research. UBS believes that McKesson’s management is quite positive about the company’s short term prospects. McKesson is considering shifting its investment towards a lower cost Paragon line. Investors view this shift as a positive change. Shares of the company are currently trading around $79 per share and are expected to reach a price target of $99. Lee Ainslie’s Maverick Capital initiated a $322 million position in MCK during the third quarter.

Bu yazi 8 UBS Stock Picks for 2012 adresinden alinmistir. Read More!

Şimdi ev almanın tam zamanı ya da yorgandan dışarı fazla uzanan ayağın hazin sonu

Forbes’ın haberine göre 21 yıl aradan sonra ilk defa bir emlak şirketi super bowl arası reklam verecekmiş. Reklamın kısa ve öz mesajı, bir varlığın satışından ya da yönetiminden komisyon alan kişi ve kurumların her zaman söylediği türkü şeklinde olacak muhtemelen: Şimdi ev almanın tam zamanı! Şimdi kredi almanın tam zamanı! Şimdi hisse senedi almanın tam zamanı. Tabii ki öyle, şimdi alırsan adam şimdi komisyon alır.

Neyse Mises Blog Century 21 adlı güzide firmanın Birleşik Devletler emlak balonu patlamadan hemen önce yayınladıkları reklamı hatırlamış. Century 21’in unutmayı yeğleyeceği bir reklam bu. Aşağıdaki videodan izleyebileceğiniz bu reklamda ayağını yorganına göre uzatmaya meyilli evin beyinin, “daha fazlasını iste, mali gücün olmasa bile” mottolu evin hanımı ve güleryüzlü emlakçı tarafından “başarabilirsiniz” nidaları eşliğinde mali yıkıma sürüklenişini izliyorsunuz. Sene 2006.

Tabii burada şuçu (birbirlerine göre hayatta döndükleri köşelerin sayısını karşılaştırmaya daha fazla zaman harcadıkları için) bu tür tuzaklara düşmeye maalesef daha fazla meyilli kadınlara ya da ay sonunda aldığı parayı düşünürken hayatının amacı sizin hayalinizdeki yuvayı size bulmakmış gibi davranan becerikli emlakçıya atmak kolay. Yahu iyi güzel de kabahatin hepsi onların mı? Yorgandan dışarı kulaç kulaç açılan ayağın hiç mi suçu yok?

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Hedge Fund Performance

HSBC published the Hedge Weekly for the week of Jan 30 to Feb 3, revealing a list of hedge funds’ performances in January 2012. Some of the hedge funds haven't reported any 2012 returns yet. Overall, it seems most hedge funds’ returns are on their way back to positive. Let’s take a look at them.

1. John Paulson – Paulson & Co: Hedge Weekly updated Paulson’s 2011 year-end returns. Through the end of 2011, Paulson’s Credit Opportunities fund lost 18.24% His Advantage fund lost 35.96%. His Advantage Plus fund lost 52.64%, and his Recovery fund lost 27.73%. It's been recently reported by several financial media outlets that Paulson returned around 5% in January 2012.
2. Bill Ackman – Pershing Square: Pershing Square gained 1.10% during the first 13 days of January.

3. Dan Loeb – Third Point: Loeb’s Third Point Offshore fund returned 3.8% during the first 13 days of January 2012.

4. Lee Ainslie – Maverick Capital: Maverick Fund gained 5.89% through January 27, 2012.

5. Jim Simons – Renaissance: Renaissance Institutional Equities gained 0.01% during January 2012.

6. Israel Englander – Millennium: Englander’s Millennium Intl Ltd gained 1.20% in the first 26 days of January.

7. James Dinan – York Capital: Dinan’s York Investment Ltd. gain 2.50% through January 20.

8. Steve Heinz – Lansdowne: Lansdowne’s European Long Only fund gained 4.52% from December 31 to January 27. Lansdowne’s UK Equity fund gained 5.67% in the same time period.

9. Joshua Friedman – Canyon Capital: Canyon’s Balanced Fund lost 4.57% last year. Its January performance is unavailable.

10. Edward Mule – Silver Point Capital: Silver Point Offshore fund gained 0.71% during the 13 days of January.

11. John Bader – Halcyon: Halcyon Offshore Asset-Backed Value Fund is up 0.57% during the first 17 days of January.

12. Richard Perry – Perry Capital: Perry Partners Intl gained 3.61% as of January 27th.

13. Robert Karr – Joho Capital: Joho Capital is up 0.1% through December 31, 2011 to January 27, 2012

14. John Horseman – Horseman Capital: John Horseman’s Global Fund returned 1.39% through January 31.

15. Mark Kingdon – Kingdon Capital: Kingdon Offshore fund gained 6.24% through January 27.

16. Andrew Feldstein – Blue Mountain Capital Management: Blue Mountain Equity Alternatives gained 0.40% through January 27.

17. Curtis Macnguyen – Ivory Capital: Ivory Capital’s Flagship Strategy gained 2.18% through January 27.

18. Michael Messner – Seminole: Michael Messner’s Seminole Capital gained 1.90% in January.

19. Boaz Weinstein – Saba Capital: Saba Capital Offshore returned 0.37% during the first 6 days of January.

20. Thomas Kempner – Davidson Kempner Capital: Davidson Kempner International Class C lost 2.87% last year. The fund was up 0.33% in December.

21. Jacob Gottlieb – Visium Asset Management: Visium Institutional Partners Fund is down 0.08% through January 27.

22. Philippe Jabre – Jabre Capital: As of January 24th, Jabcap Global Balanced Fund Ltd is up 2.5%.

23. Glenn Dubin – Highbridge: Highbridge Long/Short Equity Fund is up 3.58% through January 27.

24. Andreas Halvorsen – Viking Global: Viking Global Equities is up 1.27% through January 27.

25. John Murphy – Alydar: Alydar Fund Ltd lost 0.68% in 2011, and was down 0.8% in December 2011.

26. Leon Cooperman –  Omega Advisors: The Omega Overseas fund was down 1.44% last year. The fund gained 0.83% in December.

27. Ricky Sandler –  Eminence Capital: Eminence Fund is up 4.1% in January.

28. Tom Claugus – Bay Resources:  Partners Offshore fund lost 9.13% in 2011.

29. Paul Tanico – Castlerock: The fund lost 23.84% in the past year. It also lost 3.25% in December.

30. Wayne Cooperman - Cobalt: Cobalt Offshore fund lost 0.69% in 2011. The fund lost 0.28% in December.

31. David Einhorn - Greenlight: Greenlight Capital is up 3% through the end of January.

32: Crispin Odey - Odey Asset Management: The Odey European fund gained 4.18% in the first 13 days of January.

33. Jeffrey Altman – Owl Creek Asset Management: Jeffrey Altman’s hedge fund is up 4.5% through January 27.

34. Paul Tudor Jones – Tudor Investment Corp: Tudor Tensor Fund is up 0.09% through January 27. Tudor BVI Global gained 1.66% during the same period.

35. Alan Howard – Brevan Howard: Brevan Howard Master gained 0.45% through January 20.

Bu yazi ilk olarak Hedge Fund Performance January 2012 adresinde yayinlanmistir.

Read More!

Yurtdışına seyahat sigortasız çıkmak

Gelecek hafta Türkiye'den bir arkadaşım eşi ile beraber ziyaretime geliyor. Genelde beni ziyarete gelenlerin coğu gibi tamamen nereleri gezip görsek kısmına odaklanmış vaziyetteler. Ben ise her zaman yaptığım gibi iki önemli sorumu soruyorum: (1) bana peynir, zeytin, bal ve sucuk getirmeyi unutmadınız değil mi? (2) yurtdışı seyahat sigortası yaptırdınız mı?

“Himmm, yaptırmadık, şart mıdır?” Bu tepki standart. Eskiden millet yurt dışına sadece turla çıktığından ya da sadece Avrupa’ya,  Amerika'ya gittiginden ve bu ulkeler yurtdışı seyahat sigortasını zorunlu tuttugundan, bizim memlekette bu sigortanın bizim için hayati olduğu pek algılanmıyor. Ben her zaman soruyorum zira ziyaretime gelen her Türk vatandaşının bu sigortayı sallamayacağını ya da hepten unutacağını biliyorum. Singapur, Tayland, Malezya Türklerden vize istemediğinden yurtdışı sigortası buralara gitmek için şart değil. Vizesiz seyahat çok güzel bir şey, pasaportu kapıp elini kolunu sallaya sallaya başka bir memlekete girmek ya da hayatınızın amacı o memlekete kapağı atma varsayımı ile kapıda sorgulanmadan sınırı geçmek. Ama bu elini kolunu sallaya sallaya gelme konusunu da abartmamak lazım. Geçenlerde bir arkadasim yurtdisi seyahat sigortasi yaptirmadan geldi ornegin, Endonezya, Tayland ve Singapur'u sigortasiz gezdi. Insanlarda bu bolgeler ucuz yerler oldugu icin hastanelerin de ucuz olacagina dair tamamen yanlis bir varsayim var.

“Şart değil ama buralarda hadi olmaz ya başınıza bir iş gelirde hastanelik olursanız mahvolursunuz” dedim ben de. Tayland’da örneğin Allah korusun bir yol kazası geçirseniz, sonrasında da ameliyat gerekse o hastaneden on binlerce dolar ödemeden çıkamazsınız. Sadece kaza değil, hırsızlık, hastalık, hukuki işlemler sizi finansal olarak çok zor duruma sokabilir. Sadece standart bir sigorta paketi yaptırıp da çıkmayın. Sigortanın kapsama alanına da iyice bakın. Örneğin skuba dalışı yapacaksanız seyahat sigortasının bu aktivite sonucu hastanelik olmanızı karşılayıp karşılamadığına iyice bakın. Standart sigorta paketleri genelde bu tür aktiviteleri kapsama alanı dışında tutacaktır.

Kısacası siz siz olun yurt dışı seyahat sigortası yaptırmadan yurt dışına adım atmayın. Sigortasız bir yurt dışı tatilinde başınıza gelebilecek tek bir kaza ile tüm hayat birikimlerinizi kaybedebileceğiniz gibi ödeme güçlüğü nedeniyle geciken bir müdahale ile hayatınızı da kaybedebilirsiniz.

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Best Power and Utilities Stocks Recommended by Barclays

Barclays Capital published a report entitled “Go with the Flow” on January 03, 2012. Daniel Ford, Gregg Orrill, Theodore W. Brooks, Ross A. Fowler, M. Beth Straka and Noah Hauser have identified their most preferred power and utilities stocks for investment in 2012. Here are the five stocks Barclays Capital is bullish about:

American Electric Power (AEP) has been given an over-weight rating by Barclays Capital (BCS). The company received a final judgment on its Ohio generation and distribution cases on December 14, 2011. The Ohio jurisdiction has substantial impact of 30-40% on American Electric Power’s earnings, indicating a material future earnings growth. Even though both cases were settled, the stock was still trading at a 12% discount through the day of the ruling two weeks ago. However in the two weeks after the ruling, the stock outperformed the regulated group by 1.1% i.e. it was up by 7.6% versus the 6.5% regulated group increase. Barclays Capital expects the outperformance to continue in 2012. Moreover, American Electric Power, along with other partners, announced a plan to build a gas pipeline in Ohio for the purpose of transporting Utica shale gas to the Eastern marketplace. Barclays Capital believes that American Electric Power will earn $3.10, $3.17 and $3.28 in 2011, 2012 and 2013 respectively. Although the stock has performed well recently, it still trades at an 11% discount to its peers. This is despite the new earnings visibility and a 4.5% yield indicating a 10% premium to the average dividend yield for regulated utilities. Barclays Capital has given a price target of $45 per share, indicating a regulated group utility multiple of 13.3x their 2013 EPS estimate of $3.28, plus $1/share of cash. Jim Simons’ Renaissance Technologies had the largest stake in AEP among the 350+ hedge funds we are tracking.

Northeast Utilities (NU)/NSTAR (NST) has been given an over-weight rating by Barclays Capital. In view of Barclays Capital, once the company’s merger with NSTAR (NST) is finalized, it should create one of the best positioned large cap regulated utilities in Barclays Capital’s coverage universe. NSTAR shareholders will receive 1.312 Northeast Utilities shares under the merger agreement. All currently required regulatory approvals have been granted, except for those from the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities (DPU) and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). It is expected that the merger will be completed in early 2012. Merger Agreement requirements expire April 16, 2012. Upon merger completion, Northeast Utilities shareholders will see their dividends to be in par with NSTAR’s shareholders. Barclays Capital believes the combination of an attractive 3.8% dividend yield, and dividend growth aspirations in line with earnings growth of 6-9% will continue to be a convincing investment feature. Barclays Capital’s $39 per share price target for Northeast Utilities shares is based on the ‘13E EPS of $2.63. This includes a $1.27E transmission on a 16.4X comparable multiple equivalent to $21, and $18 for the distribution business. This is based on the ‘13E of 41.36 on a 13.5X regulated group multiple. A large-cap premium is offset by current regulatory uncertainty. Barclays Capital’s $49 per share price target for NSTAR is based on Northeast Utilities ‘13E EPS of $2.63. This includes a $1.27E transmission on a 16.4X comparable multiple equivalent to $21, and $18 for the distribution business. This is based on the ‘13E of 41.36 on a 13.5X regulated group multiple. The resulting $39 per share is multiplied by 1.312 Northeast Utilities shares. Barclays Capital then applies a 5% discount for regulatory uncertainty. D. E. Shaw had the largest stake in NU among the hedge funds we are tracking.

OGE Energy Corp. (OGE) has been given an over-weight rating by Barclays Capital. OGE energy Corp. combines a top-performing regulated electric utility with a rapidly expanding mid-stream gas pipeline business, Enogex. Enogex operates in the most profitable basin in the U.S. and contributes approximately 25% to the overall business net income. OGE is exclusively positioned to achieve top-quartile long-term EPS growth and consistent steady dividend growth. Barclay’s capital is forecasting a consolidated five-year (2009-2013) earnings per share growth of 9.5% from a utility rate base growth and expansions in Enogex’s gathering and processing. Barclays Capital value OGE on a forward price-to-earnings multiple for the utility component, and a forward EV/EBITDA for Enogex. Barclays Capital has given a $59 per share price target based on a consolidated 2013E EPS of $3.95. This consists of a $2.86E for the utility, taking out $0.04 for the Holding Co. base on a 13.6x regulated group P/E multiple. This is also discounted by 5% for the regulatory risk associated with its pending rate case. This results in $36 to which $23 for Enogex is added. This is estimated based on an assumed 81% ownership on an EV/EBITDA of $2,911 million and a 9.5X comparable multiple. Adage Capital Management had $37 million invested in OGE at the end of September.

Calpine Corp. (CPN) has been given an over-weight rating by Barclays Capital. Calpine Corp is the only spark spread generator in power. The company is most exposed to tighter power markets while being least sensitive among its peers to gas prices. Barclays Capital likes Calpine Corp for its primary exposure to Texas and California power markets, for the company’s discipline is to use excess cash flow to repurchase stock, and for CEO Jack Fusco who has a history of outperformance in the sector. Barclays Capital believes that the company has the best fleet of combined cycle gas plants in the industry. The company should strengthen its portfolio by looking at areas like the Southeast or the North for expansion and then repurchase stock with the proceeds. The company also expects to bring on-line the 75% owned 619 MW Russell City project in 2013 along with the 120 MW Los Esteros expansion/conversion to combined cycle in California. Barclays Capital has given a price target of $18 per share. This estimate is based on $18 for Open EBITDA at 7.1x $1.64 Billion for the gas assets and $436 Million at 9.6x for geothermal. The Price Target is also based on $17 for the asset value which includes enterprise value of $14.5 Billion and is $520/kw. Billionaire Phil Falcone’s Harbinger initiated a new position in CPN during the third quarter.  

AES Corporation (AES) has been given an over-weight rating by Barclays Capital. The new CEO Andres Gluski aims to initiate a quarterly dividend yielding 1.3% annually and take it to 2-3%. Gluski also aims to reduce geographic spread from 28 to 20 countries and cut costs aggressively. The company would raise $2 Billion over the next few years through asset sales. The 2012 EPS guidance is $1.27-$1.37, with AES focusing on the midpoint of the range. Looking from a base as per Barclays Capital forecast of $0.98 in 2011, drivers are new projects and the DPL merger accretion, the absence of DPL merger costs, cost cuts, and free cash flow. Downsides to this would be the Eletropaulo rate case in Brazil and currency sensitivities. Barclays Capital’s price target of $16 per share is estimated by averaging results of three valuation methods independent estimates of which are $18, $13 and $15. $18 is from a sum of parts valuation which includes $3.24 Billion in EBITDA from unlisted subs applied to 6.7x, $314 Million for a renewable EBITDA applied to a 8x multiple, $6/share for listed subs, and $15.5 Billion in proportional net debt and 797M shares. $13 is estimated from 6.7x $3.7 Billion in 2012 proportional EBITDA less proportional net debt of $15.5 Billion and 797M shares. And $15 is derived from 11.6x the 2012 EPS of $1.38. All multiples use International Power as a comparable. Steven Cohen’s SAC Capital boosted its stake in AES by 13% during the third quarter.

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6 Airline Stocks to Buy, 2 To Avoid by UBS

UBS Research Analyst Kevin Crissey and Associate Analyst Kevin Grasmick published a report titled “US Airline Sector Note: That was ugly” on January 03, 2012. The analysts have analyzed the US Airline sector’s performance during 2011 and concluded that it was disappointing. Although the airline sector witnessed a strong revenue growth over the last year, their final results have been dismal (excluding Alaska and Allegiant). Hence, on average, airline stocks lost 25%. Revenue estimates for the airline sector were increased to 10% from 7%, while the estimates for growth in fuel cost were also 20% higher. Moreover, analysts believe that managements of these companies were not able to pass on the fuel price increase entirely to the consumer, generating a negative impact on the bottom-line. Given that the revenue outlook for the sector remains strong in the US, analysts are bullish on selected stocks like DAL and LCC.

Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) is UBS’s top pick from the sector with a buy rating and a price target of $12.0 per share. Delta Airlines provides passenger and cargo air transportation services globally. It also provides services related to aircraft maintenance, repair, and overhaul. Other services offered by the company include staffing services, professional security, vacation packages, and aircraft charters. The company employs 700 aircrafts and its operations span over 357 destinations in 66 countries. Due to its strong FCF profile in 2012 and a low susceptibility to an increase in labor costs, the stock has been rated as an attractive buy by the analysts. On a forward P/E basis, the stock is trading at a hefty discount at 3.9x compared to its peer average of 9.9x. However, on a 12M trailing EV/EBITDA basis, the stock trades at 5.3x which is at par with its peer average of 5.2x. Ken Heebner’s Capital Growth Management is very bullish about Delta. Heebner initiated a brand new $135 million position during the third quarter.

US Airways Group, Inc. (LCC) has also been given a buy rating by UBS with a price target of $10.0 per share. This is mainly on account of a concentrated domestic route network, where analysts foresee that outperformance in pricing will favor the company’s fundamentals for 2012. The US Airways Group, through its subsidiaries, provides air transportation for passengers and cargo with 3,200 flights daily to 200 destinations worldwide. The Company operates through a fleet of 339 mainline jets along with its regional airline subsidiaries, adding another 231 regional jets and 50 turboprops to the total fleet size. On a forward P/E and a 12M trailing EV/EBITDA basis, the stock is trading at a hefty discount at 3.7x and 4.7x compared to its peer average of 9.9x and 5.2x respectively. Moreover, the stock is also trading cheap at 4.0x the P/FCF basis compared to its regional peer average of 10.0x. Billionaire David Tepper had $51 million in US Airways. He trimmed his positions in DAL and LCC during the third quarter.

Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) has also been given a buy rating by UBS with a price target of $81.0 per share. Alaska, through its subsidiaries, Alaska Airlines, Inc. and Horizon Air Industries, Inc., operates as an airline company serving 23 million passengers, and offering mail and freight services. Its destinations are concentrated in the western United States, Canada, and Mexico. The company’s subsidiary Alaska Airlines operates a fleet of 114 jet aircrafts, while Horizon Air Industries operates a fleet of 13 jets and 41 turboprop aircrafts. On a forward P/E and a 12M trailing EV/EBITDA basis, the stock is trading at a hefty discount at 7.7x and 3.0x compared to its peer average of 9.9x and 5.2x respectively. Moreover, the stock is also trading cheap at 6.1x the P/FCF basis compared to its regional peer average of 10.0x. Jim Simons’ Renaissance Technologies had the largest stake in ALK among the 350+ hedge funds we are tracking.

JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU) has been given a neutral rating by UBS and a price target of $5.0 per share. JetBlue Airways provides passenger air transportation services through 650 flights on daily basis with 63 destinations in 21 states and 10 countries in the Caribbean and Latin America. The company operates through a fleet of 115 Airbus A320 aircrafts and 45 EMBRAER 190 aircrafts. Other services offered through the company’s subsidiaries include in-flight entertainment, voice communication, and data connectivity systems for commercial and general aviation aircrafts. On a forward P/E and a 12M trailing EV/EBITDA basis, the stock is trading slightly expensive at 11.1x and 5.7x compared to its peer average of 9.9x and 5.2x respectively. However, the stock is trading cheap at 6.7x the P/FCF basis compared to its regional peer average of 10.0x. Robert Millard’s Realm Partners sold out its $14 million position in JBLU during the third quarter.

Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) has been given a neutral rating by UBS with a price target of $9.5 per share. Southwest Airlines Co. operates as a passenger transportation airline in the United States. The company has 548 Boeing 737 aircrafts and provides transportation to 69 cities in 35 states. The company also sells frequent flyer credits and related services to companies participating in its Rapid Rewards frequent flyer program. The stock is trading slightly expensive at 11.0x the forward P/E ratio as compared to its peer average of 9.9x. Whereas on the basis of a 12M trailing EV/EBITDA, the stock is trading at a discount at 4.5x compared to its peer average of 5.2x. It also trades cheap at1.0x the price-to-book-value. The stock offers a small dividend yield as compared to its regional peers offering no dividends. Bill Miller’s Legg Mason is among Southwest investors.

United Continental Inc. (UAL) has been given a buy rating by UBS and a price target of $35.0 per share. United Continental offers passenger and cargo air transportation services. The company operates a total of 5,675 flights in a day to 372 destinations worldwide. The stock trades extremely cheap on valuations. On a forward P/E basis, a 12M trailing EV/EBITDA basis and a P/FCF basis, the stock is trading at 3.5x, 2.9x and 4.0x compared to its peer average of 9.9x, 5.2x and 10.0 respectively. John Griffin’s Blue Ridge Capital cut its stake in UAL by 54% during the third quarter.

Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) has been given a buy rating by UBS with a price target of $61.0 per share. The company, through its subsidiaries, operates as a leisure travel company in the United States. It operates a fleet of 51 MD-80 aircrafts and 1 Boeing 757-200 aircraft, and also owns and leased 3 Boeing 757-200 aircrafts. Allegiant provides charter air services under long-term contracts, as well as on a seasonal and ad-hoc basis. It primarily sells air travel on a stand-alone basis, as well as bundled with hotel rooms, rental cars, and other travel related services. Allegiant is the most expensive stock on the basis of valuations among the regional airline companies. On a forward P/E basis, a 12M trailing EV/EBITDA basis, and a P/FCF basis, the stock is trading at 13.6x, 6.1x and 14.4x compared to its peer average of 9.9x, 5.2x and 10.0 respectively.

Hawaiian Holdings, Inc. (HA) has been given buy rating by UBS and a price target of $9.0 per share. Hawaiian, through its subsidiary, Hawaiian Airlines, Inc., offers air transportation for passengers and cargo. The company provides scheduled and ad-hoc services on its Pacific routes between Hawaii and far-east Asia. It operates a fleet of 15 Boeing 717-200, 18 Boeing 767-300 and 3 Airbus A330-200 aircrafts. Hawaiian trades cheap at 5.0x the forward P/E and 2.2x the 12M trailing EV/EBITDA compared to its peer average of 9.9x and 5.2x respectively. Moreover, the stock also appears cheap at 0.8x the price-to-book-value compared to the peer average of 1.6x. Whitebox Advisors boosted its stake in HA by 19% during the third quarter.

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7 Dirt Cheap 5 Stars Rated Stocks by S&P

Value investing is one of the best investment strategies individual investors can use to beat the market in the long run. Even though the stock market was pretty stagnant during the last 10 years, value investors were able to return around 7 percent per year.

In the search for large-cap value stocks, we ran a screen for stocks that were rated 5 stars, or “strong buy,” by Standard & Poor’s. We found the following list of 7 stocks each of which has a P/E ratio of 10 or less.

1. Barrick Gold Corp (ABX): ABX is a gold and mining exploration and production company. It has a market cap of more than $46 billion. The stock is currently trading at a forward PE of 8, and its EPS is expected to grow 58% annually for the next five years. The stock currently trades at about $46.50, and S&P is very bullish about it, predicting a more than 70% return in the next 12 months. ABX lost 13% last year and was owned by 39 hedge funds at the end of Q3. Total hedge fund investment in ABX at that time was nearly $1.58 billion. Dan Loeb, David Einhorn, and Jim Simons were among ABX’s largest stakeholders (see Jim Simons’ top stock picks).

2. Apache Corp (APA) is an energy company which specializes in natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids. The company has a market cap of $37.5 billion. It has a forward PE of nearly 8 and its EPS is expected to grow at 6%. The stock lost 24% in 2011, but S&P predicts a 50% return in the next 12 months. Thirty hedge funds had $1.15 billion invested in APA in the third quarter 2011.

3. Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (CLF) is a global mining and natural resources company. It has a market cap of $10.4 billion and trades at a forward PE of 5.7. Its expected EPS growth rate is about 20% for the next five years. CLF dropped 20% in 2011 while S&P gives a 12 Mo. target return of 44%. Twenty two hedge funds were invested in CLF at the end of the third quarter last year, with a total volume of $283 million. Ken Fisher was CLF’s largest stakeholder among the funds we track (see Ken Fisher’s stock picks).

4. Chevron Corp (CVX) is an energy giant with a market cap of nearly $213 billion and has a forward PE of just above 8. Its EPS is expected to grow at 7.5%. CVX managed to beat the S&P500 by advancing 20% in 2011. In addition to the upside, it also has a sound dividend yield of 3%. In the next 12 months, S&P predicts a 23% return for CVX. Thirty-eight hedge funds were invested in CVX at the end of the third quarter, with a total exposure of $919 million. Bill Miller and Cliff Asness each had more than 1 million shares in the stock at the end of September.

5. Dell Inc. (DELL) is a well-known information technology and business services company. It has a market cap of $30.4 billion, with a forward PE of 8. The company also has an expected EPS growth rate of 6% for the next five years. S&P estimates a 13% return over the next 12 months. In 2011, DELL returned 7%. Of the 350+ funds we track, 36 hedge fund portfolios included DELL as of the end of September. Total hedge fund investment was about $2.9 billion at the end of the third quarter. Mason Hawkins’ Southeastern Asset Management had a particularly large position in DELL, owning more than 146 million shares in the company at the end of September.

6. General Motors Co. (GM) is a worldwide automotive company. The company has a $39 billion market cap and currently trades with a forward PE of 6.6. Its EPS is expected to grow at 11% annually for the next five years. GM tumbled in 2011 and lost a whopping 45% during the year. S&P predicts a 36% return in the next 12 months. Seventy-one hedge funds retained their positions in GM at the end of September, with more than $2 billion in the stock. David Einhorn had nearly 15 million shares of GM during that time (see David Einhorn’s favorite stocks).

7. Rio Tinto Plc. (RIO) is a minerals exploration and production company. It has a market cap of $110 billion. The stock currently has a forward PE of 6.7 and an expected EPS growth rate of 17%. RIO lost 30% last year but S&P recommends a 34% return over the next 12 months. Howard Marks initiated a brand new position in RIO during the third quarter.

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Top IT and BPO Services Stocks Recommended by JP Morgan

J.P. Morgan published a report entitled “IT and BPO Services” on January 12, 2012. The report isn’t publicly available but we will share its main points. In the report, Tien-tsin Huang, Puneet Jain, and Dick Wei share their opinion of the IT and BPO Services stocks performing better relative to the S&P 500 in 2012. Stocks that have a high mix of offshore delivery, have the ability to cut costs of clients, have high exposure to healthcare, and have investments with a long-term impact on growth profile are preferred. The overall IT services budget is expected to be flat “with a potential for modest declines” as the macroeconomic environment worsens. Here are the stocks discussed in the report:

Accenture plc (ACN) operates as a management consulting, technology services, and outsourcing company. It has been given an Overweight rating by J.P. Morgan (JPM) due to its strong client relationships. Accenture is able to meet the needs of its clients faster than its competitors, giving it an edge over them. The company is in a position to execute its high return-on-investment projects as well as cutting costs for its clients. The company’s outsourcing may also be able to pick up on any slack. Accenture’s stock is relatively defensive to the macroeconomic uncertainties, according to J.P. Morgan. Shares of the company are currently trading at $53.3 per share and are expected to reach a price target of $62, indicating a potential upside of 16%. Lansdowne Partners has the largest stake in Accenture among the 350+ hedge funds we are tracking.

Cognizant (CTSH) provides information technology, consulting, and business process outsourcing services. It has been given an Overweight rating by J.P. Morgan as they believe that Cognizant is going to grow at industry-leading rates. The vendor consolidation trend is expected to be beneficial for the company. If the current macroeconomic uncertainties persist, Cognizant is expected to grow around 15-20%. If not, it is expected to grow in the high 20s or low 30s. The company has focused on client relationships and the opening of new markets, enabling it to grow faster than its competitors. Shares of the company are currently trading at $68 and are expected to go north of $85 per share. Lee Ainslie’s Maverick Capital initiated a new position in CTSH during the third quarter.

ExlService Holdings, Inc. (EXLS) is a provider of outsourcing and transformation services. It is the top pick from within J.P. Morgan’s coverage universe and has been given an Overweight rating. With clients looking to decrease costs, and outsource their BPO operations, J.P. Morgan expects ExlService to benefit. J.P. Morgan also expects the company to reach a revenue growth near its top end target of 15-20%.  Its relatively inexpensive valuation is going to provide it with an upside opportunity. It has also lowered its business risk over the last few years. Shares of ExlServices are currently trading at $22.9 per share and are expected to reach a price target of $28, indicating a potential upside of 22%. Anand Parekh initiated a brand new position in EXLS during the third quarter.

Genpact (G) engages in the provision of business process and technology management services. J.P. Morgan has given the company an Overweight rating because it is one of the premium offshore BPO companies in terms of its service capabilities, size, and diversification. Genpact is expected to benefit as its clients cut their internal costs. The company’s long-term growth profile is likely to appreciate as the new CEO looks to reinvest the margin upside back into the business. Shares of Genpact are currently trading at $14.5 and are expected to reach a price target of $18 per share. Ricky Sandler and Chase Coleman are among the hedge fund managers with large positions in Genpact at the end of September.

Syntel, Inc. (SYNT) engages in the provision of information technology and knowledge process outsourcing services. It has been given an Overweight rating by J.P. Morgan. If the company is looking to maintaining its STT business, it needs to offer a price discount, according to J.P. Morgan. Also, the company’s AXP business is likely to underperform, resulting in a negative impact on its growth profile. A depreciation of the rupee, on the other hand, is expected to provide a margin upside and will buffer earnings growth. According to J.P. Morgan’s bearing outlook, Syntel’s financial expenditure is likely to create tailwinds that will protect its earnings growth. Shares of the company are currently trading at $45.5 per share and are expected to reach a price target of $55. Jim Simons’ Renaissance Technologies cut its stake in SYNT by 29% during the third quarter.

VanceInfo (VIT) provides information technology consulting services. It has been given an Overweight rating by J.P. Morgan. The company has a relatively inexpensive valuation that, together with secular growth trends, will allow the company to outperform its peers in 2012. Despite an expansion into the financial services, the Huawei overhang is expected to slow down multiple expansions. Shares of VanceInfo are currently trading at $13.7 per share and are expected to reach a price target of $20. Steadfast Capital and Emerging Sovereign Group are among the hedge funds with VIT holdings. 

Virtusa Corp. (VRTU) provides information technology consulting, and implementation and application outsourcing services. It has been given a neutral rating by J.P. Morgan. Virtusa’s capabilities and its growth profile have seen a significant improvement over the last few years. However, J.P. Morgan is of the opinion that the company’s management needs to maintain a record of meeting its estimates. In a favorable macroeconomic environment, Virtusa’s application rationalization abilities are expected to grow. Shares of the company are currently trading at $14.7 per share and are expected to reach a price target of $16.

Some of the other companies mentioned in the article are iSoftstone (ISS), WNS Holdings Ltd. (WNS), and Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC). iSoftstone has an Overweight rating while both WNS Holdings and Computer Sciences Corporation have been given an Underweight rating. Shares of WNS Holdings and Computer Sciences Corporation are currently trading at $9.9 and $24 respectively, while shares of iSoftstone are currently trading at $9. Stephen Mandel’s Lone Pine Capital had $33 million invested in ISS at the end of September.

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Jim Cramer's Favorite Technology Stock Picks

Jim Cramer is a former hedge fund manager. Cramer expresses his views on stocks during his TV shows, which has helped many ordinary investors who watch his show daily on TV make their own investments. We believe that by focusing on Jim Cramer’s top recommendations, investors are more likely to beat the market in the long term. In this article, we are going to focus on the technology stocks Cramer are bullish about recently. All companies have at least $10 billion market cap and were recommended by Jim Cramer during his TV show over the past month.

Apple Inc (AAPL): AAPL is the technology stock that recommended by Cramer the most times over the past month. Cramer recommended investors to buy AAPL on January 4, 9, 18, and 20. Hedge funds agree with Cramer. As of September 30, 2011, there are 125 hedge funds with AAPL positions. For example, Tiger Cub Stephen Mandel and Chase Coleman are both bullish about AAPL. Mandel’s Lone Pine Capital had $785 million invested in AAPL and Coleman’s Tiger Global Management LLC had $646 million invested in AAPL at the end of the third quarter. AAPL has a market cap of $392B and a low forward P/E ratio of 10.72. It returned 10.22% so far since the end of September, versus 16.99% for SPY in the same period. We are long-term bullish about Apple because of its low valuation and high growth expectations.

Intel Corp (INTC): Cramer also mentioned INTC more than once over the past month. He recommended “Buy” for INTC on January 4 and January 20. Hedge funds agree with Cramer’s judgments about INTC as well. There are 42 hedge funds with INTC positions at the end of the third quarter. For example, Ken Fisher’s Fisher Asset Management had $414 million invested in INTC. Jim Simons’ Renaissance Technologies also invested $200+ million in this stock. Intel reported net income of $3.4 billion for the fourth quarter of 2011, up from $3.2 billion for the same quarter a year earlier. INTC has a market cap of $134B and a relatively low forward P/E ratio of 11.08. It was up 24.73% since the end of September, beating the market by 8 percentage points. We are also long-term bullish about Intel because of its low valuation.

AT&T Inc (T): AT&T provides communication services in the United States and worldwide. During the past month, Cramer also recommended investors to buy T twice. He mentioned the stock on January 3 and January 4. A certain number of hedge funds agree with Cramer. For example, Cliff Asness’ AQR Capital Management had $100+ million invested in T at the end of September. Since then, the stock returned 10.22%, lower than the 16.99% for SPY. But T seems to be trading at a discount. The $181billion market cap stock has a low forward P/E ratio of 12.45. We like AT&T’s high dividend yield and relatively high growth rate for a high dividend stock. This is one of our long-term positions in our portfolio.

Cramer is also bullish about Applied Materials Inc (AMAT), American Tower Corp (AMT), Broadcom Corp (BRCM), Google Inc (GOOG), International Business Machines Corp (IBM), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM), and Texas Instruments Inc (TXN). We like technology stocks. We have Microsoft in our portfolio and plan to add other names when their prices reach more attractive levels. We believe technology stocks are undervalued as a sector as most of them are trading at attractive multiples. We strongly encourage investors to do some deep research on the technology stocks that Cramer recommended recently. The only large-cap name we would add to this list is Dell (DELL) which was bought by David Einhorn during the fourth quarter.

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6 Sell Rated Technology Stocks by Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs published a report entitled “Americas: Technology: IT Services” on January 11, 2012. The report isn’t publicly available but we will discuss its main points. In their report, Julio C. Quinteros Jr., Vincent Lin, Roman Leal, and Geo John are defensive for the IT services sector in the year 2012. Goldman Sachs (GS) is concerned about the “current macro backdrop, with expectations for a slower global growth clouding visibility as we head onto 2012”. They have concentrated on stocks that are U.S. based mentioning a number of buy and sell rated stocks. Here are Goldman Sachs’ sell rated stocks.

Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC) provides information technology and professional services to both the government and commercial enterprises. Goldman Sachs has given the company a sell rating and remains cautious on its valuation. Computer Sciences Corporation has significant exposure to the Department of Defense which is looking to cut budget in 2012. Also, Goldman Sachs is of the opinion that due to Computer Sciences Corporation’s sluggish booking and a potential loss of the NHS contract, its shares are going to be impacted negatively. Shares of the company are currently trading at $24.9 per share and are expected to go south of $22 by the end of 2012. Glenview Capital sold its entire $42 million position in CSC during the third quarter.

CSG Systems International, Inc. (CSGS) provides outsourced customer care and billing solutions for North America. It has been given a sell rating by Goldman Sachs due to its exposure to the U.S. cable/satellite vertical services. CSG Systems also has a long sales cycle of transformation software deals that are resulting in headwinds. With a lower expected demand for ancillary services in the company’s core processing business, its valuation will most likely be negatively impacted. Shares of the company are currently trading at $15.7 per share and are expected to go south of $13. Currently, it has a price-to-earnings ratio of 18x. Intrepid Capital Management had $26 million in CSGS at the end of September.

Convergys Corporation (CVG) provides relationship management solutions on a global basis and operates in both the Customer Management and Information Management sectors. Goldman Sachs has given the company a sell rating because it believes that Convergys is a low growth company with lower returns to scale. Goldman Sachs recently increased its expected target price due to a higher implied CY2012 price-to-earnings ratio of 12x versus the earlier estimate of 10.9x. This is based on an improvement in the company’s growth prospects with regards to volume. Convergys also recently announced that it is going to buy back shares. Its shares are currently trading at $12.8 per share and are expected to fall to a price target of $11. Barry Rosenstein sold 41% of his stake in CVG during the third quarter.

Equifax, Inc. (EFX) collects, organizes, and manages various financial, demographic, employment, and marketing information solutions for businesses and consumers. Goldman Sachs has given the company a sell rating. Shares of the company are currently trading at $39 per share and are expected to fall to a price target of $36 per share. The price target is based on the CY2012E price-to-earnings ratio of 14.6x. Equifax is expected to generate an estimated return on capital of 10%. The price target was recently revised by Goldman Sachs taking into account improved operating results and recent multiple expansions for Equifax. Eminence Capital had the largest stake in EFX among the 350 hedge funds we are tracking.

Pitney Bowes, Inc. (PBI) provides mail processing equipment and integrated mail solutions on a global basis. It has been given a sell rating by Goldman Sachs. The company is currently facing protracted weakness in the SMB sector which could limit its valuation in the near future. Earnings growth is also reporting a slowdown but its consistent dividend yield of 8% will provide some support to the stock prices. Shares of the company are currently trading at $19.3 per share and are expected to go south of $18 per share by the end of 2012. Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates sold its entire position in the company during the third quarter.

Solera Holdings, Inc. (SLH) provides software and services to the automobile insurance claims processing industry. It has been given a sell rating by Goldman Sachs. Solera Holdings has a significant exposure to the European markets in the near-term. Goldman Sachs recently lowered the price target for the company due to headwinds caused by an increase in financial expenditures. Its shares are currently trading at $43 per share and are expected to reach a price target of $41 per share. The company has a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.3x. Jim Simons’ Renaissance Technologies reduced its position in Solera by 11% during the third quarter.

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