First Financial Daily: Most stock markets over the world performed poorly in 2011. What about 2012?
Rogers: 2012 is a very special year. Dozens of countries will have elections, including the United States, France, Korea, and Russia. The performance of these countries significantly affects the world economy. Usually governments increase spending in order to win the elections. The central banks will also print more money. Thus we will have more liquidity in the market. However, do not expect that the stock market will perform particularly well, since the global economy is still facing serious problems, such as the debt crisis and the growth slowdown. The rebound will be limited.
First Financial Daily: Gold has been sluggish after it approached $2,000/oz. How do you see the future of gold?
Rogers: The price of gold is indeed correcting, but I think that correction will continue. I am not surprised that gold prices remain at $1,400-1,500/oz. Gold will fall to $1,300/oz. in this wave of adjustment and I will buy then. And if gold fell further to $1,200/oz., I will buy more if I have money.
First Financial Daily: In addition to gold and silver, what are you holding now? How do you predict the future trends of commodity prices?
Rogers: I also bought a lot of agricultural commodities. Their prices are still low. For example, the price of sugar fell 17% from 1974 to the present.
Agricultural development is lagging. We lack the farmers and arable land because of agricultural depression. If this trend continues, we will face food shortages. Therefore, agricultural commodity prices must rise to attract capital and qualified people. Now the trend of investing in agriculture has already started, so not only I can foresee more and more farmers will become rich, but also I know that agricultural commodity prices will rise in the long-term.
If the world economy improves in 2012, commodity prices will rise and I will make money. If there is an economic downturn, currencies will depreciate a lot, and commodity prices will also rise because people will hedge against the depreciation.
New Round Of Economic Recession In 2013; The Euro Area Should Be Bold.
First Financial Daily: In 2002 and 2008, because of the Internet bubble burst, “9.11″ and the debt crisis, the U.S. experienced two economic downturns. Do you expect a new round of economic recession in the future? How will this impact the rest of the world?
Rogers: As said before, the market in 2012 will be driven by the general elections. There will be a lot of government spending, which will pile up the debt. Then the situation may be bad in 2013 and 2014. The recession will be caused by the negative effects of the heavy debt loads. The United States may not have enough bullets to fight the next serious recession. Europe will have very serious problems too.
This will undoubtedly affect other countries, including China. But compared to Western countries, China’s conservatism will lessen the blow. However, in general, no country can be spared from the recession in 2013 or 2014.
First Financial Daily: European debt crisis has been going on for two years. What do you think about the euro area and the euro?
Rogers: The best thing they can do is to let the Greeks go bankrupt, let the banks collapse and shareholders lose, and then restructure the whole thing.
The euro area should do the same thing when it dealt with the three Nordic banking crisis in early 1990s. Take quick and decisive measures. The Government took over insolvent financial institutions, restructured the banks through disposing non-performing assets, and emerged from the crisis quickly. Twenty years ago, the Japanese government’s response to the crisis is a lesson to us. Letting those banks become “zombie banks” will only lead to 10 years of recession or even longer.
Therefore, if the euro zone keeps kicking the can down the road, I am very worried that the euro zone economy may face years of recession. The euro will also be in danger, although the world economy needs the euro and the dollar to compete with each other in order to maintain the balance. If the euro collapses, it will lead to the appreciation of dollar, yen, and even RMB.
First Financial Daily: Recently, some analysts said the “BRIC”(Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries’ golden decade is over. Do you agree?
Rogers: To some extent, I do not agree. Although since the beginning of 2011, I have been shorting the emerging markets, including Brazil, India, Vietnam, U.S. technology stocks, and some European stocks, but I did not short China.
China is the world’s largest creditor. The mainland of China, Singapore, Hong Kong, and other Asian regions gather a lot of capital and assets, so I suggest people to move to Asia in the future, and teach their children to speak Chinese. In some aspect, the future opportunities remain in China and Asia.
Kaynak: Jim Rogers
Source: http://stock.hexun.com/2012-01-06/136987641.htm Read More!
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is a major integrated oil and gas company with a $408.00 billion market cap. It is currently priced at 10.26 times its earnings. XOM pays a 2.21% dividend yield and has a 21.96% payout ratio. Analysts give it a 2.2 on a scale from 1.0, meaning “Strong Buy,” and 5.0, meaning “Sell.” The company has a 0.51 beta and recently traded for $85.12 a share. Ken Fisher’s Fisher Asset Management had $518.97 million in XOM at the end of the third quarter, while Phill Gross and Robert Atchinson’s Adage Capital Management had $497.18 million in the company at the end of September.
Chevron Corporation (CVX) is a major integrated oil and gas company with a $215.70 billion market cap. It is currently priced at 8.03 times its earnings. CVX pays a 2.99% dividend yield and has a 22.20% payout ratio. Analysts give it a 1.9 on a scale from 1.0, meaning “Strong Buy,” and 5.0, meaning “Sell.” The company has a 0.80 beta and recently traded for $108.31 a share. Phill Gross and Robert Atchinson’s Adage Capital Management had $266.89 million in CVX at the end of the third quarter. Bill Miller’s Legg Mason Capital Management and Cliff Asness’ Aqr Capital Management were also fans of the company.
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is an application software company with a $236.42 billion market cap. It is currently priced at 10.22 times its earnings. MSFT pays a 2.85% dividend yield and has a 24.37% payout ratio. Analysts give it a 2.1 on a scale from 1.0, meaning “Strong Buy,” and 5.0, meaning “Sell.” The company has a 0.99 beta and recently traded for $28.10 a share. Boykin Curry’s Eagle Capital Management had $494.86 million in MSFT after increasing its stake in the company by +4%. Jean-Marie Eveillard’s First Eagle Investment Management, Ken Fisher’s Fisher Asset Management and David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital also had significant stakes in MSFT at the end of the third quarter.
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT) is a discount department store with a $202.06 billion market cap. It is currently priced at 13.29 times its earnings. WMT pays a 2.47% dividend yield and has a 31.11% payout ratio. Analysts give it a 2.3 on a scale from 1.0, meaning “Strong Buy,” and 5.0, meaning “Sell.” The company has a 0.35 beta and recently traded for $59 a share. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway had $2.03 billion in WMT at the end of the third quarter, while Boykin Curry’s Eagle Capital Managementowned a stake worth $479.72 million at the end of September.
The Coca-Cola Company (KO) is a non-alcoholic beverage company with a $156.56 billion market cap. It is currently priced at 12.69 times its earnings. KO pays a 2.73% dividend yield and has a 33.32% payout ratio. Analysts give it a 1.7 on a scale from 1.0, meaning “Strong Buy,” and 5.0, meaning “Sell.” The company has a 0.55 beta and recently traded for $68.93 a share. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway had $13.51 billion in KO during the third quarter. Paul Ruddock’s Lansdowne Partners and Boykin Curry’s Eagle Capital Management are also fans of the company.
McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) is a fast food restaurant company with a $102.94 billion market cap. It is currently priced at 19.73 times its earnings. MCD pays a 2.78% dividend yield and has a 47.27% payout ratio. Analysts give it a 2.0 on a scale from 1.0, meaning “Strong Buy,” and 5.0, meaning “Sell.” The company has a 0.46 beta and recently traded for $100.60 a share. Jim Simons’ Renaissance Technologies had $270.53 million in MCD at the end of September after increasing its stake in the company by +25% during the third quarter.
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) is a personal products company with a $182.58 billion market cap. It is currently priced at 16.84 times its earnings. PG pays a 3.16% dividend yield and has a 48.59% payout ratio. Analysts give it a 1.8 on a scale from 1.0, meaning “Strong Buy,” and 5.0, meaning “Sell.” The company has a 0.45 beta and recently traded for $66.36 a share. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway had more than 8% of its portfolio invested in PG at the end of the third quarter, in a position worth $4.85 billion. Ken Fisher’s Fisher Asset Management was also a fan.
Pepsico, Inc. (PEP) is a non-alcoholic beverage company with a $102.23 billion market cap. It is currently priced at 16.39 times its earnings. PEP pays a 3.15% dividend yield and has a 49.27% payout ratio. Analysts give it a 2.3 on a scale from 1.0, meaning “Strong Buy,” and 5.0, meaning “Sell.” The company has a 0.52 beta and recently traded for $65.39 a share. Boykin Curry’s Eagle Capital Management had $338.14 million in PEP after upping its holding in the company by +4% during the third quarter. Ric Dillon’s Diamond Hill Capital was also a fan.
Kaynak: 8 Mega Cap Companies with Dividends Over 2% Read More!
Combs “was assigned to oversee as much as $3 billion and can make trades without consulting Buffett,” writes Bloomberg. “Combs is part of a second generation of Berkshire leaders who will collectively assume the responsibilities that Buffett has held through his four decades as chairman, chief executive officer and head of investments.” And, Combs is certainly acting the part. “I’d give him an excellent grade,” said David Kass, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business. “He is very much demonstrating what you might expect a value investor like Warren Buffett to do.” For example, Buffett invested in Goldman Sachs when the credit crisis in 2008 was at its most dire and advised shareholders in 1998 to “rejoice when markets decline,” and Combs pulled a similar play on August 8 last year, the first trading day after the S&P downgraded the U.S.
Warren Buffett has said that if a position is small (i.e. under $200 million), it was probably picked by Todd Combs or Ted Weshler, who was hired to help Combs’ manage the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio in September.
So, is Buffett better or Combs?
To answer this question, let’s look at Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio at the end of the third quarter and see which positions performed better – those under $200 million or the larger positions under Buffett’s domain?
There were five positions initiated by Berkshire Hathaway during the third quarter, and before Weshler joined the company, that were less than $200 million and, as such, likely attributable to Combs: C V S Caremark Corp (CVS), Directv (DTV), General Dynamics Corp (GD), Intel Corp (INTC) and Visa Inc (V). Since the end of September to the close of trading yesterday, all of these except DTV was returning in the double digits. CVS returned 24.86%, DTV 2.72%, GD 21.18%, INTC 20.43% and V 16.81%.
In comparison, Berkshire Hathaway’s 5 largest positions – Coca Cola Co (KO), International Business Machs Cor (IBM), Wells Fargo & Co New (WFC), American Express Co (AXP) and Procter & Gamble Co (PG) – returned quite a bit less than that. KO gained 2.77% from the end of September to the close of trading yesterday, while IBM, a new position for Berkshire Hathaway in the third quarter, returned just 4.26%. AXP and PG did better, returning 8.62% and 6.33% respectively. WFC did the best of the group, returning 22.08%, but the returns still fall short of the positions Combs picked.
Kaynak: Is Todd Combs Better Than Warren Buffett? Read More!
Merhabalar bu yazımızda kredibiletinin ne olduğunu tartışacağız. Rdynk, Merkez Bankası başkanı Erdem Başçı’ nın iki farklı açıklamasını paylaştı. Bir açıklamada TL’ nin USD’ ye karşı değerini koruyamayacağını söylerken öteki açıklamada ise TL’ nin USD’ yi yeneceğini açıklamaktadır. Burada devreye kredibilite denen hede giriyor.
Kredibilite nedir? Yeni Klasik iktisatçıların literatüre kattığı kredibilite, itibarı olan politika demektir. Eğer kamuoyu uygulanacak politikanın gerçekten uygulanacağına, zaman içinde sapmalar olmayacağına inanmıyorsa bu politikalar itibarlıdır. Kredibilitesi olan politikalar sayesinde iktisadi ajanlar istikrarı kolaylaştıracak şekilde davranırlar. Kredibilitesi olmayan politikalarda ise iktisadi ajanlar istikrarı zorlaştıracak şekilde davranırlar.
Örneğin iktisatta bir dogma vardır. Bu dogma enflasyon ile milli gelir arasında ters bir ilişki olduğudur. Bu şöyle gerçekleşir; fiyatlar genel seviyesinde sağlanacak gerilemeler üretimin dolayısıyla istihdamın gerilemesine yol açacaktır. Bu bakımdan fiyatlar genel seviyesini düşürmenin maliyeti üretim kaybıdır. İtibarlı politikalar sayesinde bu sorunun üstesinden geliriz. Yüksek enflasyondan düşük enflasyona işsizlik ve üretim kaybı minimum olacak şekilde geçebiliriz.( Rasyonel beklentiler varsayımı ile).
Günümüz Merkez Bankacılığında bir kural vardır, para politikası parasızdır kuralı. Yani artık Merkez Bankaları beklentileri yöneterek, bankaları- bireyleri etkileyerek para politikası uygulamaktadır.Belki TCMB Başkanı Erdem Başçı, yukarıdaki açıklamalardan sadece bir tanesini açıklasaydı bu politika itibarlı olabilirdi. Ama artık değil. Diyelim ki Erdem Başçı sadece TL’ nin Dolar karşısında değer kazanacağını söyledi, bu durumda iktisadi aktörler ellerindeki USD' leri, TL’ ye çevirecekler ve politikanın uygulanmasına yardımcı olacaklar-dı. Ama artık değil, iyi günler.
1)Paya, Merih, Makro İktisat, s.364-365Read More!
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