Gelismekte Olan Ulkeler: Emerging Markets Nedir?

Barron's finansal piyasalar uzerine en iyi yazilarin ciktigi dergilerden bir tanesidir. 12 Mart 2007 tarihli Lawrence Strauss tarafindan yazilan "A Good Time to be Picky in Emerging Markets " baslikli yazida gelismekte olan piyasalarla ilgili Borge Endresen isimli portfoy yoneticisinin su goruslerine yer verilmis:

"He points out that emerging markets account for nearly half of global gross domestic product but far less than half of global stock-market capitalization. Endresen wouldn't be surprised by more short-term volatility in emerging markets, but asserts that the "vast majority" of U.S. investors are "wildly underweight" these markets.

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Underpinning the bullish case is a belief that countries like Brazil, India and China have undergone major economic restructurings. George Iwanicki, global macro emerging-markets strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, says that many of these countries have adopted sounder fiscal policies, in part by running budget surpluses, and are replacing dollar-denominated debt with borrowings in local currency, a cushion against exchange-rate shocks. "Growth prospects in emerging markets are very positive relative to the developed world," he says. The firm still likes Turkey and Brazil, two of the more volatile emerging-market countries, but is more cautious about India, because "valuations have gotten very rich and very dependent on sustained rapid economic growth," Iwanicki says. "

Yazida ayrica su rakamlara yer veriliyor:

"Another part of the bull case is that the recent selloff has made emerging-market stocks cheaper. On Feb. 27, following the big one-day decline, these stocks traded at 10.76 times forward earnings, versus just above 15 times for U.S. shares, according to MSCI Barra. Iwanicki asserts that the longtime discount for developing markets is narrowing. "

Bu rakamlara bakarak iki sey soyleyebilirim, hem gelismekte olan ulke borsalari hem de Amerikan borsalari pahali sayilmaz. Kisa vadede ekonomik yavaslama gibi nedenlerle dususler olabilir ama uzun vadeli getirileri tatminkar olacaktir.

Konuyla pek alakali degil ama gecenlerde bir yerde "Amerikan borsalari dususten dolayi 600 milyar dolar deger kaybetti" deniyordu. Agustos 2006'dan dususun baslangicina kadar Amerikan borsalarinin (Borsa Yorumları) 1800 milyar dolar deger kazandigi ise gozlerinden kacmis olmali.