Bilesik Faiz II

Asagida verdigim adreste senelik %12 getiri ve bilesik faiz varsayimiyla 60 yasinda 1 milyon YTL sahibi olmaniz icin biriktirmeniz gereken aylik miktarlari gorebilirisiniz. Dikkatinizi cekerse diye soyluyorum 20 yasindan itibaren ayda 84 YTL biriktirirseniz 60 yasinda %12'lik getiriyle milyoner olabiliyorsunuz. Oysa %10'luk bir getiriyle sadece 500,000 YTL sahibi olabiliyorsunuz. Bu da erken biriktirmeye baslamak kadar, yaptiginiz yatirim seciminin de ne kadar onemli oldugunu gosteriyor.

http://www.parasalzeka.com/pz/bekarlar2.asp Read More!

Compound Interest (Bilesik Faiz) Nedir?

Bir yatirimcinin bilmesi gereken tek bir sey varsa o da (compound interest) bilesik faizdir. Basit bir ornekle anlatalim. Diyelim ki, 20 yasinizdan itibaren her sene 1000 YTL biriktirmeye basladiniz ve bu parayi reel getirisi (bu konuya baska bir zaman deginecegim) senelik %10 olan bir alana yatirim yapmaya basladiniz. Ilk sene biriktirdiginiz 1000 YTL 21 yasina geldiginiz zaman 1100 YTL olacaktir. Bu parayla birlikte yine geride kalan senede biriktireceginiz 1000 YTL'i yine senelik getirisi %10 olan alanda yatirmaya devam edeceksiniz. Her sene 1000 YTL biriktirmek cok zor bir olay degil. 50 yasiniza geldiginiz zaman, toplam birikimleriniz (biriktirdiginiz nominal para sadece 30000 YTL bu tarihe kadar) bilesik faizle katlanarak yaklasik 181000 YTL civarinda bir rakama ulasmis olacaktir. 55 yasina geldiginiz zaman, nominal biriktirdiginiz rakam 35000 YTL olmasina ragmen, yatirimlariniz 298000 YTL'ye ulacaktir. 60 yasinda emekli oldugunuz zaman ise hesabinizda 487000 YTL birikmis olacaktir.

Bunu nasil basariyoruz? Gunde 2 lira 67 kurus biriktirerek ve daha onemlisi bilesik faiz yardimiyla. 20 yasinizda bir kenara koydugunuz 1000 YTL, senelik %10 getiriyle 40 sene sonra 45259 YTL'ye donusuyor. O yuzden erken para biriktirmek, gec para biriktirmekten cok daha onemli. Bilesik faizin sirri da burada.
(Tutumluluk ile ilgili atasozleri) Read More!

Ilk Borsa Yorumum

Burada orta ve uzun vadeli borsa yorumlari yapiyor olacagim. Bana gelip de babam gibi ”borsa yarin duser mi cikar mi?” diye soru sormayin, bilmiyorum. Gazete veya televizyon yorumcularinin dedigi gibi ”kesin cikar, ama cikmazsa kesin duser” de diyebilirim, siz istediginiz cevabi kullanin.

Turkiye’de borsaya yatirim yapmak sadece son 1-2 yil icerisinde cazip bir hale geldi. Yabanci yatirimcilarin da, ben de bunlardan biri oluyorum aslinda, ilgisinden anlayabilirsiniz bunu. Hala cok riskli, ama eskisine kiyasla risklerde goreceli azalmalar var.

Ben onumuzdeki 2-3 sene icerisinde borsanin yukari yonlu hareketine devam etmesini bekliyorum. Neden mi? Turk ekonomisinde son 4 yildir bir normallesme var, ve faizler, enflasyin, ve butce aciklari hizla asagiya dogru gidiyor. Ben ekonomi yonetiminin kararli tavrina devam edecegini dusunuyorum. Bu nedenle 2007 senesi sonunda enflasyonun %3 civarinda Avrupa ve Amerika ile kiyaslanabilecek bir rakama inecegine ve hazine bonosu faizlerinin de %7-8 araligina inecegini dusunuyorum. Bunun sonuclari ne olur?

Dusen faizlerden ilk once bankalar ve gayri menkulle ilgilenen sirketler faydalanir. Dusuk faizler tuketimi canlandirir, tuketiciye yonelik urunler ureten sirketler faydalanir. Ben de borsadaki hisse secimimde bu analizi kullanip asagidaki sirketlere Ekim ortasindan itibaren yatirim yapmaya basladim.

TUPRAS 50 adet Alis:21.80 Son:24.70
ISGYO 400 adet Alis:2.45 Son:2.96
AKCNS 150 adet Alis:6.40 Son:8.20
DOAS 165 adet Alis:5.90 Son:6.65
TSKB 225 adet Alis:4.44 Son:4.56

En son TSKB’yi 28 Aralik tarihinde aldim. Simdilik her sirkete 1000 YTL civarinda yatirim yapiyorum. Ancak yakin bir zamanda daha buyuk pozisyonlarda bir kac tane banka daha eklemeyi planliyorum.

Simdilik sansli bir zamanlamanin da etkisiyle tum pozisyonlar artida. Kisa vadede artida veya ekside olabilirim ama uzun vadede artida olacagimi dusunuyorum.

Bu konu ile diger alakali bir yazi ise Borsa Nasıl Oynanır? En Sağlam Tüyolar baslikli yazimizdir. Read More!

Ekonomi Yonetimi Nasil Olmali

Bu cok uzun bir konu, burada sadece ufak bir giris yapip yeri geldiginde bu konuda yazmaya devam edecegim.

Ekonominin uzun vadeli buyuklugunu etkileyen degiskenler isgucu, sermaye, ve teknolojidir. Ben serbest piyasa ekonomisinin bu faktorlerin en etkin sekilde uretilmesini ve tuketilmesini sagladigini dusunuyor, ve ekonomi yonetiminin tek amacinin serbest piyasa ekonomisinin etkin bir sekilde islemesini saglayacak kosullari sunmasi oldugunu dusunuyorum. Devletin ekonomideki payi cok kucuk olmali, ve devlet daha cok yasa yapici ve uygulayici olmalidir. Devlet uretim yapmamali, borc para vermemeli, spora destek olmamalidir. Devlet zenginden alip yoksula vermemelidir.

Peki Turk ekonomisi ne durumda? 1, 3, 5, 10, 20, 50 sene oncesine gore Turk ekonomisi cok iyi durumda, hatta su an zirvede diyebiliriz. Ama yapilacak daha cok sey var. Genelde Turkiye devleti “sosyal” bir devlet. Politikacilarinin cogu da sosyalist ekonomi gorusune sahipler. Herkes Deniz Baykal’in solcu oldugunu bilir, ama size Tayyip Erdogan’in da solcu oldugunu (en azindan uyguladigi ekonomi politikalari) soylesem sasirirsiniz. Aslinda Erdogan’in uyguladigi politikalar karisik politikalar: ucret politikali sosyalist ama vergi politikalari muhafazakar. Genel olarak Turkiye’nin dogru yolda oldugunu soyleyebiliriz. Ben su anki ekonomi politikasini oldukca basarili buluyor ve Turkiye’de olsaydim oyumu muhakkak Erdogan’a verirdim diyorum. Read More!

Terms of Use

2005'i kapatirken ekonomi ve borsa yorumlarimla dolu yeni bir sayfa aciyorum.

Bu sayfanin kullanimi asagida Ingilizce olarak belirtmis oldugum kosullara baglidir. Lutfen bu siteyi kullanmadan once kullanim kosullarini dikkatlice okuyunuz. Ingilizce bilmemeniz veya kullanim kurallarini okumamis olmaniz mazeret olarak kabul edilemez. Eger ingilizce bilmiyorsaniz ve bu kurallari anlamamissaniz bu ekrani kapatin ve blogumuzu okumayin.


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The Terms of Use were last revised: February 4, 2007 Read More!