Isgucu Piyasasi

Isgucu piyasasi uzerine cok yazilar yazdik cok sozler soyledik. Morgan Stanley'den Serhan Cevik de konuyu ozetleyici bir yazi yazmis. Gormeyenler icin yazinin bir bolumunu asagiya aktariyorum, akabinde bir kac soz de ben soyleyecegim.

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"Although Turkey has not really suffered from high and persistent unemployment in the past, the structural component of unemployment increased in the 1990s and especially after the 2001 crisis. Of course, a variety of factors contribute to this new phenomenon, which we can also see in the changing composition of employment. The share of agriculture declined by almost ten percentage points in the last five years to below 30% of total employment, against a sustained increase in non-farm jobs. In other words, the economy has created jobs, but the composition has shifted away from low-skilled, low-paying jobs in traditional sectors. This is no doubt an exciting development that will accelerate income convergence vis-à-vis Europe. Nonetheless, the adjustment phase is not painless and makes politicians vulnerable to popular anger and marginalisation. That said, populist manoeuvres would not bring any relief on a sustainable basis at all, and the only way to ease the pain of adjustment is to move forward with consolidating macroeconomic stabilisation and introducing microeconomic reforms, in our view.

One of the main determinants of labour demand is the cost of labour. Although the economy is going through a structural transformation that creates better jobs, the problem stems from institutional rigidities and arbitrary wages that curb the demand for labour. In our view, the minimum wage policy is a notable example of how political manipulations distort the labour market and end up encouraging firms to undertake labour-augmenting capital spending. With a 52.6% real increase since 2001, the minimum wage corresponds to about 87% of per capita GDP. Of course, such a disproportionate rise has not only failed to improve living standards, but also priced unskilled and inexperienced workers out of the labour market by raising the marginal cost of labour relative to the cost of capital (see Capital-Labour Substitution and Jobless Growth, April 23, 2004). Indeed, arbitrary wages raising unit labour costs have a fundamental role in accelerating the pace of capital deepening beyond the optimum capital/labour ratio implied by labour-market conditions.

The factor substitution process is far more powerful in labour-intensive sectors. It has been argued that policy instruments such as the minimum wage would raise the income level among low-skilled workers. Unfortunately, politically motivated decisions result in distortions and fail to improve the distribution of income (see The Illusion of Compassion, June 21, 2004). Instead, as the Turkish experience shows, labour-intensive sectors of the economy struggle with lower productivity and higher unit labour costs. And with declining profitability, firms substitute more capital for labour and/or globalise their supply chains. The result is an unsurprising deterioration in the economy’s labour-absorption capacity, which of course hurts low-skilled and inexperienced workers more than other segments of the labour market.

Employment taxes in Turkey are the highest among OECD countries. Decades of distortions have led to an archaic, regressive tax regime that puts a huge burden on employment. The effective employment tax rate increased from 30.3% in 1999 to 42.7% last year, compared with 8.1% in Ireland and an average of 27.7% for OECD countries. This is yet another factor that increases the cost of labour beyond the marginal productivity of labour and thereby encourages companies to adopt more capital-intensive production processes. No wonder, even after a 40% increase in real GDP, the country’s employment rate stands at 44.3% of the working-age population, down from 48.5% before the crisis. The task of improving labour-market conditions, however, is not as simple as correcting the tax regime and introducing a regional minimum wage scheme. Turkey’s problems have deeper structural roots and require a comprehensive strategy including a programme to improve human capital.

Institutional bottlenecks lower the economy’s labour absorption capacity. Our calculations suggest that the Turkish economy needs to create approximately 700,000 jobs per year to maintain a constant unemployment reading. This is a challenging mission even under normal circumstances and becomes a daunting task when structural changes bring a shift in the composition of employment and demand higher productivity growth."

Ingilizce bilmeyenler icin kisa bir ozet yapayim. Son 5 yilda 2 milyonun uzerinde isci tarimdan diger sektorlere kaymis, tarimin isgucu piyasasindaki payi %30'a dusmus. Bu pay %5'e dustugu zaman kendimizi basarili saymaliyiz. Asgari ucret 2001 yilindan bu yana reel olarak %53 arttirilmis. Calisanlarin durumunu daha da iyilestimek istiyorsak asgari ucreti once 1000 YTL'ye, sonra 1500 YTL'ye olmak uzerinde her 6 ayda bir 500 YTL arttirarak ulkemizin refah duzeyini onemli olcude arttirabiliriz. Buradaki artan asgari ucretin istihdami etkilemedigini varsayiyorum, yanlissam birileri birsey soylesin.

Istihdam uzerinden alinan vergiler %43'e yukselmis ulkemizde. Bu rakam Avrupanin en zengin ulkelerinden birine donusen Irlanda da %8, OECD ulkeleri ortalamasi ise %28 imis. Yuksek asgari ucret ve yuksek vergiler isverenlerin isci yerine makine ve techizat alimina yonelmelerine sebep vermistir diyor Serhan Cevik. Son olarak ulkemizde issizlik oraninin ayni kalmasi icin her sene 700,000 adet yeni istihdam uretmemiz gerektigini belirtiyor.

Bu rakamlari gordukce Milliyetci Sifirci Partisinin yaklasiminin ne kadar yerinde bir yaklasim oldugu iyice kafama yatmaya basladi. Faizleri dusurup kurlari ziplattikmi sorun kolayca cozulur!!!