Turkish Economy's GDP Growth Rate Will Exceed Expectations

Turkish economy has been growing at an 11% rate for the past 6 months, however the Turkish Statistical Institute has been using a smoothed calculation method which masks this fact from the newspaper headlines. For the latest quarter (Q4, 2009) Turkish Statistical Institute announced that the economy grew at a 6% rate. That is in comparison to the Q4, 2008. When the growth rate is calculated in comparison to the previous quarter (Q3, 2009 the same way EU or US does), it turns out that the growth rate is 11.2%

The media and analysts are not really aware of this fact and their estimates for Turkey's 2010 growth rate does not reflect this. For instance IMF is forecasting a 3.5% growth rate for 2010 which is extremely low. Goldman Sachs recently updated its growth forecast to 7% from 5.5%. In this Marketwatch article Neil Shearing from Capital Economics also states that Capital Economics expects the Turkish economy to grow by 4% in 2010. These are uninformed guesses and they are extremely underestimating what is going on in the Turkish economy at the moment. I am willing to bet $10,000 that Turkish economy will grow by at least 5% if Neil Shearing is willing to accept it.

I am assuming that the Turkish economy's GDP growth rate will decelerate somewhat in the second half of 2010 and despite this the growth rate for 2010 will be close to 8%.

Son verilerin ışığında 2010 Büyüme tahminimi %8’e yükseltiyorum. Bu konuyla ilgili detaylı yazılar: “Büyüme Oranları” ve “2010 GSYH ve Büyüme Oranı Tahminleri”