World Bank: Turkey to Grow by 5% in 2010

World Bank's Turkey Country Director Ulrich Zachau predicted on Monday that Turkey would grow by 5% in 2010. Previously World Bank was expecting a 3-4 % growth rate in 2010.

This guy is clueless. I guess he thinks that Turkey's 5% growth rate is the same as US's or EU's 5% growth rate. Well, it is not. Turkey uses the same methodology used by China, not US or EU. Growth rate is calculated compared to the previous year's quarter, not previous quarter. The difference is huuuuuuge, especially right after a big recession. It is not a simple methodological issue. It really makes a big difference.

If Turkey grows at a 5% growth rate (the same 5% as in USA or EU), then Turkish Statistics Institute will announce a more than 7% growth rate. So when World Bank updates their growth rate from 3% to 5%, they are really updating their growth forecast from 1% to 3%. Their current prediction is 3% growth rate. Well, this is even less than the growth rate of US for 2010. Do you really think Turkey will grow at a 3% rate in 2010 or a much higher rate (close to 6%).

Let me tell you one more time. Turkey's 2010 official growth rate will be announced as 8% at the end of March 2011.

Related Articles:
Turkish Economy's GDP Growth Rate Will Exceed Expectations
How can I invest in the Turkish Stock Market?
Real Interest Rates in Turkey