Teşekkürler Olli Rehn!

Malum, Ekonomi Turk sürdürülemez bir büyüme trendine girdi. Birşeyler yapıp siteyi ayakta tutmak lazım. Haftasonu düşündüm öyle Deniz Gökçe falan bizi kesmez. "Bubble" patlamadan acilen birşeyler yapmak lazım. Açtım kara kaplı defteri, Olli Rehn'in telefonunu buldum. Ona bizim siteden bahsettim. Hoşlandı tabi doğal olarak. Daha ben "ne yapabiliriz Oliciğim?" demeden, zeki adam, hemen lafı ağzımdan aldı: "Bizim çocuklara bir söyleyeyim bakalım ne yapabiliriz" dedi. Çocuk dediği de koskoca Barosso falan.

Ama pes vallahi! Bir jest bekliyordum da bu kadar acelesi var mıydı be Oli!

Aşağıdaki alıntılar komisyonun bugün yayınlanan bahar tahminlerinden. Oli almış bizim sitede yazdıklarımızı, genel çerçeveyi komisyon tahmini diye yayınlamış. Okuyunca nasıl sevinmdim nasıl sevindim anlatamam. Vallahi para versek böyle reklam yapamazdık. Hemen sipariş verdim, Kayseri'den özel pastırma getirtiyorum. Fedex'le falan acilen ulaştıracağım Oli'ye. Bu iyiliğinin altında kalmamak lazım. Malum, müzakereler uzun soluklu bir süreç. Üstelik ucu da açık, di mi sayın Yiğit Bulut?

"In 2004 and 2005, economic stabilisation continued along with a better balancing of the sources of growth.

After three years of strong growth with almost no job creation, employment started to increase since mid-2004 by roughly 2% year-on-year.

Public finances remained largely on track, with general government achieving a primary surplus of 6½% of GNP. This substantial surplus and strong GDP growth led to a sharp reduction in the general government debt ratio by about 7 percentage points to 70% in 2005. (Bu kısmı Sanayi Bakanımız Ali Coşkun iyi okusun. Kaçmış borç oranı?)

Turkey should be able to maintain strong export growth -in particular in tourism- while the tight fiscal policy stance will support the current disinflation process, in spite of pressures arising from high oil prices and rigidities in services prices.

The continued decline in inflationary pressures will improve predictability and allow for falls in interest rates, albeit at a slower pace than in the previous years, and improve the investment climate.

Overall, output is expected to increase by 5½-6% throughout the forecasting period.

GDP growth is expected to be increasingly balanced by domestic demand components, with private investment outpacing overall growth.

Declining inflation will support disposable income and allow consumers to maintain private consumption growth at above 5% in 2006- 2007.

Gross fixed capital formation will continue to benefit from improved macroeconomic stability and declining real interest rates.

The strong investment and consumption will lead to continued high growth of imports, in particular of consumer durables and capital goods.

The trend of declining inflation is likely to continue.

Fiscal discipline, improving credibility of the Central Bank’s inflation targets and the recent strength of the currency are important elements in this respect.

Annual average consumer price inflation is expected fall again below 8% during the first half of 2006. However, high oil and services prices might slow down further disinflation in 2006 and 2007.

In line with the strong growth performance, employment is forecast to increase by about 2% per year. This rise more or less corresponds with the rise in labour force, so that unemployment rates are expected to stabilize around 10⅓% in 2006 and 2007.

Public sector imbalances are likely to decline markedly during 2006-2007, benefiting from the sustained recovery, declining interest rates driven by improved market confidence and a prudent fiscal policy stance.

The general government budget deficit is therefore forecast to fall to below 1% of GDP by 2007.

The ongoing public finance reforms will help to widen the tax base and to increase the efficiency of tax collection.

Growth of imports is expected to remain strong, partially reflecting a high import content of exports and continued strong domestic demand.

The current account deficit is forecast to widen to 6⅔% of GDP in 2006, due to a deterioration of the terms of trade and a higher deficit of the income balance.

Chiefly due to a higher surplus of the services balance and the results of strong investment in the export-oriented sectors, the deficit is forecast to fall to 6½ in 2007. The strong TRY and current account deficits have been made possible by large inflows of foreign capital into the economy, initially led by IMF and financial market lending, but more recently dominated by loans to Turkish banks and companies and purchases of Turkish domestic bonds and shares.

Raporun tamamını buradan okuyabilirsiniz. (Gerçi özetlemeyi beceremedim tamamı burada var hemen hemen...)

Vallahi para versek bundan iyi reklam yapamazdık.

Not 1: Biliyorum siz de merak ettiniz. Trabzonspor meselesini sordum hemen tabiki. Birşeyler geveledi, ama sanırım Kayserispor olsaydı raporda yayınlanacaktı. Oli fanatik Kayserisporludur da...

Not 2: Atıyorum sanmayın. Komisyondaki çocuklar bizim siteyi ingilizceye çevirirken "Turkish Economy" diye çevirmişler. O yüzden biraz karışıklık olmuş. Olli arayıp bizzat özür diledi, ama resmi yayın olduğu için yayınlandıktan sonra birşey yapamam dedi. (Etibank hikayesine inanan varsa buna da inanan çıkar nasılsa...)