Bono Fonu Yoneticisi Piyasalar Konusunda Karamsar

Bonolara ve sabit getirili enstrumanlara yatirim yapan milyarder Howard Marks piyasalar konusunda oldukca karamsar. Ozellikle Amerika'nin verdigi aciklarin ve giderek artan borcluluk oraninin sorun olacagini dusunuyor. Bu konuda cok detayli goruslerini Market Outlook from Oaktree’s Howard Marks baslikli yazida detaylica anlatiyoruz. Asagiya bu yazidan ufak bir alinti aktariyorum:

I feel the best way to understand today’s investment environment is to realize that the financial crisis and economic contraction are behind us, but so is a good deal of the market recovery. Here are the most important macro considerations.

First, the economy is showing gradual improvement and the capital markets have stabilized and turned generous. We believe the economic recovery in the U.S. is genuine. It may well not be dynamic, steady as to pace or uniform across all sectors – and thus it’s unlikely to feel like a rerun of the prosperous 1990s– but the recovery seems to be underway and likely to remain so.

Second, low yields on short-term Treasurys continue to make it impossible for investors to enjoy both decent returns and complete safety. Instead, they generally must choose between return and safety, and since few investors can dispense with return, it usually gets the nod. This phenomenon has forced investors out on the risk curve, and most securities to be at least fairly priced.